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Recently, one of my macro-trader friends (arguably extremely bright) made a very interesting point about Joe Biden. We were debating on why the new U.S. president was about to deescalate geopolitical tensions, and we agreed that, as he was keen to get re-elected at the end of his current term, he would somehow try to emulate Obama’s social bottom line and its Obamacare keystone. For this to happen my friend argued, Biden would have to unlock a substantial amount of money from the budget, and combined with the relatively less belligerent character of Democrat presidents through history (by chance or…


Yesterday, I randomly stumbled across the following Adam Smith worshiper Tweet:

Like most clever looking things in economics, this is a clever lie. Not a lie that has anything to do with economics or mathematics or fancy formulas. It’s a political lie.

To understand the problem we have to start at what Adam Smith invisible hand theory said in “The Wealth of Nations”, which everyone by now should have heard about. For Adam Smith, all human relations are trade relations. Cavemen and other ancient human beings used to do barter (nowadays, you’ll hear that humans are “homo economicus”). There…


If you have followed the stream of climate change science and have some notions of statistics, there is a chance that you noticed something astonishing in the distribution of rising global temperatures. Extreme temperatures (especially the hotter ones) are becoming more and more common. Patterns are breaking down. One of the most famous and striking visuals of this is probably Robert Rohde’s acclaimed Youtube video, from which you can extract the two following screenshots of the average global temperature distribution in 1875 and 2010:

Jerome

Trader on emerging FX (Asia) markets in London for 15+ years. Centres of interest: markets, macro-economics, physics, probabilities, philosophy.

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